Godfrey Bloom interview: “The seeds have been sown for unrest in 2020 in Europe - Part I

The latest election in the UK promised to bring about a long-overdue end to the Brexit story. Getting out the EU has been a long and winding road for Britain and the multiple delays and setbacks have both infuriated and disappointed the millions of citizens who voted to Leave, by now three times already. Ever since the referendum, all (at least, foreign) eyes have been fixed on the latest Brexit updates, however, there have been other important shifts and changes in the nation, both economic and socio-political, that could have a more meaningful impact going forward.

This is why I reached out to Godfrey Bloom, to get his perspective on these developments and to better understand Britain’s present and future challenges. I find that his refreshingly direct and no-nonsense approach really helps separate the signals from the noise, which can be especially useful for investors. His professional experience is also particularly valuable in this regard. Before entering the world of politics in 2004, he worked in the City of London for forty years and won fixed interest investment prizes. He served as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for a decade and became widely known as a vocal opponent of government regulation and centralization. A firm euro-skeptic, Bloom was also heavily involved in the Brexit “Leave” campaign as an independent activist. He is an Associate Member of the Royal College of Defense Studies, holds the Territorial Decoration, Sovereign’s Medal, European Parliamentary Medal and Westminster Armed Forces Parliamentary Medal. He is also an author with seven books to his credit. He is married to one of Europe’s leading equine physiotherapists. 

Claudio Grass (CG): It would appear that after the last election in the UK, we’ve finally entered the last chapter of the Brexit saga. Given how committed Boris Johnson is to “get Brexit done”, do you expect it all to be over by January 31, swiftly and uneventfully, or do you foresee any further surprises and political tensions within the country?

Godfrey Bloom: (GB): On the plus side, after one referendum and two general elections, the British electorate have overwhelmingly endorsed Brexit for the third time. However, although the government has been returned on a Brexit platform, the British establishment is still on the Remain side. The House of Lords, the civil service, mainstream media, and the majority of back benchers are all on the remain camp.

Now, we all know that a trade deal would be easy to reach if there was mutual goodwill, but there isn't. If it gets to no deal, the government majority could disappear overnight or the lords could block it. Of course, we will leave on January 31. But will it be the Brexit we voted for, or some kind of associate membership?

We will know more in July, and I’m disinclined to make a prediction. I have been right in my assessments for decades, but I am no longer so sure. I have been a Brexiteer for 30 years and I have known only betrayal. I am now too cynical to be objective.

Nevertheless, there is a great feeling of optimism in Britain, with the exception perhaps of some central London postal districts. We haven’t had that in a while, and I sincerely hope it won’t be cut short by another political betrayal.

CG: Ever since the referendum, the political climate in the UK has been getting increasingly polarised. Do you think these frictions and toxic divisions peaked with the overwhelming defeat of Jeremy Corbyn? Will the British society really begin to heal now, as Johnson urged in his victory speech?

GB: There has been much talk of a “divided nation”. This is an over simplification. The nation is only divided between the establishment and the electorate. The last election proved this in spades.

Public sector employees, academics, mainstream media, the political and bureaucratic establishment are lined up against ordinary working people. Butchers, bakers, mechanics, cab drivers, hairdressers, small businessmen, over 17 million of them, sent a strong and united message and showed where the division lines are really drawn in the nation.

The Times of London, the BBC and others are still campaigning for Remain. Even now, they still can’t accept the will of the electorate. And yet, ordinary folk are less divided than ever before in peacetime. But ordinary people don't control the levers of power, and they don’t get to write headlines or determine the narrative that’s being promoted.

CG: What is your position on the break-apart scenarios, on Scottish independence and on the Remainer warnings that Brexit will revive the Troubles in Northern Ireland?

GB: Scotland returned 91% nationalist seats. Classically no one admits voting for them! Heard that before? The dilemma is that Scots detest the English, but can't survive without English money. It was ever thus since 1707. Ironically, the English actually want to get rid of the Scots, but nobody asks them. Westminster has now 48 English-hating socialists from Scotland. Yet they have their own parliament. This position is absurd. Scotland is bankrupt and something will have to give sooner or later.

As for Northern Ireland… Nobody understands Irish politics. The majority in Ulster want to stay in the UK. The IRA tried to bomb their way into a United Ireland and failed, and nobody wants to revisit that scenario. So, common sense will probably prevail. The Irish Republic are terrified of a United Ireland, and they think all Ulstermen are crazy. But they will only tell you that in private.

CG: What about the political and economic outlook post-Brexit? Do you expect a shift towards more decentralisation, less state control and a leaner public service, or do you think the opposite is more likely?

Despite their rhetoric, the modern conservative party is a tax-and-spend, Keynesian, neo-socialist and centralist outfit. The UK national debt has doubled on their watch and their manifesto doubled down on more spending. As usual, the national debt went undiscussed at the general election. The UK tax take is currently the highest in 50 years. It is encompassed in the goal of higher minimum wages and no reform of the ludicrous NHS.

There is some hope however: Dominic Cummings, who is the brains behind this government, is committed to serious reform of the civil service. This alone is worth giving modest hope to all thinking Brits.

In the upcoming second part, Godfrey Bloom shares his views on the Bank of England and the future of the pound, while he also outlines his expectations for 2020 and the greatest challenges for the British economy and for Europe going forward.

Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland

Source: curmet auf Pixabay